Erdogan solution or part of the problem

ankara - More than 55 million Turkish voters decide Sunday whether the power also can be officially entrusted to the authoritarian Erdogan. Erdogan made a political system where the president shots. The post of prime minister disappears and the role of Parliament is very modest.

Polls are unreliable groaning under a state of emergency Turkey. Since a coup attempt in July are certainly 50 000 people detained as possible suspects and 100 000 others have suddenly lost their jobs. The leaders of the third party in the country are as solid as many journalists. The campaign against the proposal was thwarted, according to the OSCE observers. Yet pollsters provide only a tiny majority for Erdogan's plan.

The parliament is now the legislature and the president is a ceremonial figure. Erdogan believes that the major problems facing the country is struggling with it, should be addressed by a president with a lot of power. He likes to point out that Western democracies such as France and the US also have powerful presidents.

But the Turks get when Sunday 'yes' vote no as President Hollande or Trump. The two struggle almost daily with a recalcitrant parliament and an independent judiciary. That counterweight is missing in the plan for the Turkish system in which the president decrees and the state budget can go ahead.

As a reformer Erdogan has much to be proud of. He became prime minister in 2003 and changed the country radically in ten years. He pulled the bankrupt country from the misery and let flourish the economy. He broke the power of the military. Erdogan sought rapprochement with the Kurdish minority and extremists to the PKK. Meanwhile, he sent the country with political reforms towards the EU.

But that now seems past. The economy is suffering under the burden of bombings, the unpredictable state repression and keeping away investors and tourists. Meanwhile, it is again war with the PKK. Peace in neighboring Syria seems miles away and membership of the EU is out of sight. The big question is whether voters Erdogan Sunday sees as a solution or as part of all the problems.

A 'yes' in the referendum would make the country more stable in the short term, because Erdogan could safely go further on the road he had taken. A defeat could lead to paranoid reactions like after last year's coup attempt. A major defeat refers to 'Erdogan fatigue', which possibly also prevails under Erdogan's own accord.